Ethiopia’s Prime Minister, Abiy Ahmed, and Muse Bihi Abdi, the President of Somaliland, a breakaway region of Somalia yesterday signed a Memorandum of Understanding that grants landlocked Ethiopia access to the sea through Somaliland’s port of Berbera. In exchange, Somaliland is expected to receive a stake in Ethiopia’s flagship carrier, Ethiopian Airlines, although the details have not yet been divulged. What are the potential ramifications of this agreement, rightly hailed by the Ethiopian government as ‘historic’?
Ethiopia’s recognition of Somaliland’s independence
According to Somaliland’s Bihi, speaking during the event in Addis, “Ethiopia will be the first country to recognize Somaliland as an independent republic,” based on the agreement. This holds particular significance because, despite declaring itself a republic in 1991, Somaliland has struggled to gain gaining continental and international recognition as a sovereign state.
Ethiopia’s acknowledgment is poised to significantly advance Somaliland’s pursuit of recognition both at the continental and global levels. Ethiopia’s being a considerable economic and military force in Africa and hosting the African Union, gives it substantial diplomatic sway within the continental body. Its recognition lends substantial weight to Somaliland’s diplomatic efforts and could seminally enhance its quest for African Union recognition.
On the flip side, Ethiopia’s move to recognize Somaliland as an independent nation through the MoU risks straining relations with Somalia, which considers Somaliland part of its territory and is likely to view whoever recognizes it as challenging Mogadishu’s authority and undermining the country’s territorial integrity.
Mogadishu could therefore attribute nefarious motives to Ethiopian recognition of Somaliland and consider it as an attempt to balkanize Somalia and weaken Somali unity. In this sense, Ethiopia’s recognition of Somaliland risks straining the relationship between Ethiopia and Somalia, as well as setting a precedent for other separatist movements in Africa, which may not be in the best interest of regional and continental stability.
Indeed, the reluctance of African countries and continental bodies such as the African Union, to recognize Somaliland’s separation from Somalia stems from a concern about setting a precedent for endorsing secession. Despite this general hesitation, Prime Minister Abiy’s decision to recognize Somaliland underscores Ethiopia’s prioritization of crucial sea access over these moral considerations.
Prime Minister Abiy recognizing Somaliland no doubt yields significant benefits to Ethiopia, but it also raises broader concerns. Endorsing Somaliland’s secession could establish a precedent that might render nations with secessionist tendencies in Africa – including Ethiopia which has its own regional secessionist tendencies – more susceptible to similar claims, potentially leading to further fragmentation and conflict in affected regions.
Moreover, within the Horn of Africa region, Ethiopia’s recognition of Somaliland could occasion territorial conflict between the two countries and the surrounding regions where Somaliland’s authority is contested. The eastern part of British Somaliland is currently under the control of the SSC Khatumo movement, while Puntland governs the eastern part of the Sanaag region. these areas are inhabited by clans opposing the Somaliland project, posing potential difficulties in demarcating borders if a separation occurs, and raising the grim prospects of further bloodshed and destabilization in an already fragile region.
Ethiopia gaining sea access
In October 2023, Abiy, in a televised lecture, identified access to the ocean as a strategic objective for Ethiopia. This stemmed from the fact that the country, Africa’s second most populous and one of the world’s few landlocked countries of its size and stature, faced challenges in achieving its aspiration to emerge as the uncontested regional power in the Horn of Africa due to its landlocked status.
In that lecture, Prime Minister Abiy warned that failure to secure sea access could lead to conflict, but he later toned down his comments after they raised concerns among diplomats about fresh regional instability. His remarks drew rebukes from Eritrea, Somalia, and Djibouti, all of whom described their sovereignty and territorial integrity as sacrosanct and not open for discussion.
In this context, the MoU signed between Ethiopia and Somaliland is a significant achievement for Ethiopia, as it provides the country with access to the sea and the opportunity to diversify its access to seaports. Indeed, according to the statement from the Prime Minister’s office, the Memorandum of Understanding signed is expected to “pave the way to realize the aspiration of Ethiopia to secure access to the sea and diversify its access to seaports.”
This is particularly crucial for Ethiopia, which currently heavily relies on the port in Djibouti for the majority of its trade. Thus, from a geostrategic perspective, Ethiopia’s interest in sea access, particularly in Berbera, makes sense. Among the three ports in the region, Berbera is the closest to Ethiopia and has the potential to open up the vast, albeit isolated eastern region of Ethiopia to trade and commerce.
Somaliland’s stake in Ethiopian Airlines
The Memorandum of Understanding inked between Ethiopia and Somaliland marks a significant exchange. Somaliland stands to gain a stake in Ethiopian Airlines, a deal facilitated in return for granting Ethiopia access to the Red Sea and permitting the stationing of its navy in the region.
The Memorandum of Understanding goes beyond a mere agreement; it enables Ethiopia to lease Red Sea access from Somaliland for both military and commercial purposes, inclusive of establishing a 20-kilometer sea base. This strategic move empowers Ethiopia to conduct commercial marine operations in the region, thereby expanding its maritime influence.
For Somaliland, this arrangement signifies more than just economic prosperity. It elevates the region’s geopolitical importance, forging a symbiotic relationship with Ethiopia. While the specifics of Somaliland’s stake in Ethiopian Airlines remain undisclosed, the economic benefits are palpable. Partnering with Ethiopia, a regional powerhouse, presents avenues for growth and development in Somaliland.
The stake in Ethiopian Airlines opens doors to Somaliland’s involvement in a thriving aviation industry, providing Somaliland with a strategic position in a crucial sector. This collaboration is poised to fuel job creation, and infrastructural advancement, and foster economic diversification in Somaliland, signaling a transformative period for the region.
Conclusion
It is essential to note that the details of the Memorandum of Understanding, including the specific terms of Ethiopia’s access to the sea and its stake in Somaliland, have not been fully disclosed. So, the long-term implications of this agreement, especially in the context of territorial disputes and regional stability, remain to be seen. Therefore, while the Memorandum of Understanding is a historic achievement for Ethiopia, its full impact will unfold as the details are further negotiated and implemented.
