In mid-August, Egypt signed a defense cooperation agreement with Somalia, Ethiopia’s neighbor to the southeast. Both Egypt and Somalia have longstanding grievances against Ethiopia—Somalia over a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Somaliland, and Egypt over Ethiopia’s construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Nile River.
Recently, both countries have entertained the idea of war against Ethiopia, and Addis Ababa views the agreement as a war pact against Ethiopia. Considering the frequency with which countries sign such agreements, the development sparked little immediate concern upon signing. However, Egypt’s subsequent announcement that it will deploy troops in Somalia as part of the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM)—replacing the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) late this year—could be reason for concern to Addis.
Strategic Interests Behind Egypt’s Involvement
The timing of Egypt’s involvement, right after signing the defense agreement with Somalia and amid its own disputes with Ethiopia, suggests that Egypt may not be genuinely interested in stabilizing Somalia from Al Shabab. Instead, it appears to be using the AUSSOM mission as a cover to flex its geopolitical muscle against Ethiopia. If Egypt were truly invested in Somalia’s stabilization, it would have participated in such missions from the start, much like Uganda and Ethiopia have done.
Egypt’s decision to join AUSSOM now, when tensions with Ethiopia are high, suggests it is seizing an opportunity to position its troops close to Ethiopian borders under the guise of peacekeeping. This strategic move could allow Egypt to prepare for potential conflict without triggering significant scrutiny or giving Ethiopia a clear reason to retaliate.
Gaining a Strategic Advantage
But what is Egypt’s ultimate goal? By positioning its forces in Somalia, Egypt gains a strategic advantage over Ethiopia, with troops stationed close to Ethiopia’s southeastern border. Should tensions escalate into conflict, Egypt’s deployment would serve as a preemptive military maneuver that strategically disadvantages Ethiopia. While an immediate war might not be in the cards, Egypt’s military presence in Somalia would facilitate essential preparatory activities, such as intelligence gathering and strategic planning, that could benefit its long-term military objectives against Ethiopia.
Thus, while it is premature to assert that Egypt’s motive for joining AUSSOM is to prepare for direct conflict, the move aligns with Egypt’s broader strategic goals. Egypt has not abandoned its efforts to thwart Ethiopia’s GERD project, which it views as an existential threat. Years of negotiations, including bringing the issue to the United Nations Security Council, have failed to yield results, as Ethiopia continues with GERD construction, reaching what could be considered a point of no diplomatic return. By deploying troops in Somalia, Egypt could be signaling its willingness to back its diplomatic stance with military action.
Ethiopia’s Options
In June, Somalia announced that it wanted Ethiopian troops, who have been securing Somalia under ATMIS, to withdraw and not be part of AUSSOM, set to begin in January 2025. Four months later, Egypt announced it would send troops under AUSSOM, putting Ethiopia in a difficult position. While Ethiopia might have been willing to leave if requested by Somalia, being replaced by troops from Egypt—a distant rival—raises new challenges.
Ethiopia has a few options to consider. The first would be to demand that the African Union Peace and Security Council (PSC) rescind its decision to enlist Egyptian troops as part of AUSSOM. In the interest of neutrality, the PSC could ensure that neither Ethiopian nor Egyptian troops are stationed in Somalia, preventing either country from claiming a strategic advantage. If the PSC does not reverse its decision, Ethiopia might opt to keep its troops in Somalia despite Somalia’s request for their withdrawal.
Averting Further regional instability
While this decision would be controversial, it could avert the potentially severe consequences of Egyptian deployment, which could trigger further instability in the region. Already, Somaliland has vowed to fight against Egyptian troops should they be deployed, increasing the likelihood that Egyptian involvement will exacerbate existing regional tensions.
The PSC’s decision to approve Egyptian troop deployment, given the volatile regional dynamics, was a mistake. It compromises AUSSOM’s impartiality and effectiveness and risks escalating tensions, as Egypt’s involvement appears more aligned with its strategic objectives against Ethiopia than with the mission’s goal of stabilizing Somalia.
This decision also sets a dangerous precedent. By allowing a member state to exploit AU missions to further its strategic interests, the PSC undermines the neutrality and impartiality of such missions. This could damage the credibility of future AU operations and ultimately weaken the AU’s ability to maintain peace and stability in the region.
The first question boils down to what is the goal of the AU PSC? Certainly the goal is to create stable peaceful state that can co-exist with its neighbours.
The second question is can bringing in Egyptian forces as part of AUSSOM contribute to AU PSC goal of creating a peaceful co-existence with its neighbours? The answer is absolutely not. Egypt is not only taking advantage of its membership in AUSSOM but it will use this as an opportunity to attack Egypt both from Sudan and Somalia in order destroy the GERD