Ethiopia is one of the fastest-growing economies in Africa. It has one of the best-equipped militaries on the continent. It is the second most populated country in Africa. And it has a historical track record that pitches it among the most influential states in the comity of nations. Can one even start to imagine what access to the sea would do to the economic, political, and military might of this country currently landlocked country? Certainly! And Ethiopians themselves have made no secret of how they see any such access as crucial to the prosperity of their country.
But that is not all. Indeed, from a broader perspective, such access would be a win for continental Africa. Establishing a naval base, would among others, align with the emerging imperative for an Africa-centric geo-strategic security architecture amid the ongoing geopolitical realignment as I have extensively discussed in this discourse titled: Sea Access for Ethiopia holds strategic security merits for Africa.
And yet, despite all of these prospects, the country’s pursuit has triggered a crisis that has not only been felt in the Horn of Africa but is also resonating continent and worldwide. Why is that so? Why does something otherwise advantageous trigger such a crisis? Because the Africa-wide merits of Ethiopia’s pursuit for access to the sea have been obscured in at least three ways.
First, they have been swallowed in the controversy surrounding the approach to acquiring that access. Secondly, they have been distorted in the projection of that access through mostly a parochial perspective of national interests. Thirdly, they have been eclipsed by the sensationalism and rhetoric surrounding the geopolitical discourse by national, regional, and international actors.
Approach to Acquiring access to the sea
Ethiopia’s approach to gaining sea access through Somaliland, in exchange for recognizing the independence of this breakaway region of Somalia has sparked a diplomatic crisis. This has shifted discussions to primarily focus on two key points: the apparent violation of Somalia’s territorial integrity and the (il)legitimacy of Somaliland’s independence. In the ensuing hullabaloo, the merits of Ethiopian sea access, whether for individual countries, regional interests, or continent-wide considerations, have been swallowed up.
Now, positions on these two issues are both divisive and controversial, as they touch on fundamental aspects of governance cherished by the affected parties. However, we can all agree, at least to some extent, that Ethiopia’s pursuit of sea access would have been better served without the crisis generated by committing to recognize Somaliland’s independence. Perhaps, if approached differently, its merits could have taken center stage and been better received by all partners.
Of course, the controversy is benefiting Somaliland, bringing publicity to its push for independence recognition, regardless of the immediate outcome. However, from Ethiopia’s perspective, the crisis is proving deleterious, adding credence to accusations of expansionist motives, which, whether true or false, toxify and weaken its case for sea access– at least in the short term.
Somalia’s response has been combative, hinting at war should Ethiopia proceed with accessing the sea through Somaliland, despite the region greenlighting it. Somali president, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, called on Somalis to “prepare for the defence of our homeland”, while his advisor declared, “We are ready for a war if Abiy wants a war”. Is war a risk Ethiopia is willing to take? How does it do justice to the merits of the country’s pursuance of access to the sea?
Projection of access through a parochial perspective
Secondly, Ethiopian leaders have crafted a narrative around pursuing access to the sea, primarily focusing on considerations specific to Ethiopia’s national interests. Undoubtedly, these considerations are crucial. However, projecting the pursuit as primarily serving “national interests first” presents a twofold problem. First, it provides other countries with the agency to adopt a counteractive zero-sum posture in the name of serving their ‘national interest first”. Secondly, it results in a skewed representation of the overall continent-wide impact and benefits, overshadowing the substantive merits that a more holistic and inclusive perspective might reveal.
To address this, shaping the country’s pursuit of sea access in a more comprehensive and outward-looking manner, one that considers interests and implications beyond Ethiopian borders would foster a more nuanced and constructive dialogue, allowing continent-wide merits to take center stage instead of myopic national interests. The ensuing open dialogue would shift the narrative away from accusations of expansionist motives and violation of territorial integrity to the potential benefits of sea access for regional stability, economic growth, and shared security.
Granted, the talk of pursuing sea access as serving Ethiopia’s “national interest” rallies Ethiopians around supporting it. However, the same rhetoric suffices in Somalia to oppose it in the name of Somali “national interest”. This same is true in other regional countries which have competing resource and political interests with Ethiopia. Eventually, and perhaps without intention, the ensuing narrative distorts the merits of Ethiopia’s sea access as merely tactical maneuvers to outflank other countries in a hegemonic contest. No wonder Egypt has already seized on this, as have others, forming a consensus that Ethiopia, in pursuit of its ‘national interest”, is jeopardizing regional stability.
Eclipse by sensationalism and rhetoric
Thirdly, the comprehensive advantages tied to Ethiopia’s strategic maritime access for Africa as a continent have been obscured amidst the clamor of sensationalism and geopolitical maneuvers. While non-African nations and international bodies have predictably voiced solidarity with Somalia’s territorial integrity, these declarations have unwittingly fed into a discourse that deflects attention from the significant strategic gains achievable through Ethiopia’s sea access.
Pronouncements from global partners, ostensibly driven by concerns over regional stability, have disproportionately underscored pessimistic facets, often overlooking the extensive positive ramifications of an expanded Ethiopian maritime footprint in the Horn of Africa. This external narrative, intricately entwined with geopolitical tensions and territorial apprehensions, compounded by the echo chambers of social media activism (both supportive and critical of Ethiopia), has crafted a storyline sidelining the intricate strategic advantages of Ethiopia’s sea access.
Ethiopia’s present imperative lies in reclaiming control over the narrative and redirecting the discourse towards the continent-wide benefits intricately woven into its pursuit of sea access. By accentuating the broader advantages for the region, Ethiopia can orchestrate a more enlightened and constructive dialogue, transcending the tumult of sensationalism and geopolitical posturing.
Next Steps
Ethiopia’s pursuit of sea access, while mired in controversy and geopolitical complexities, presents a pivotal opportunity for Africa’s collective security and development. The current crisis, triggered by diplomatic missteps and distorted narratives, underscores the need for Ethiopia to recalibrate strategies and perspectives. The country should harness its diplomatic prowess to foster inclusive agreements that consider regional interests and aspirations. Along that path, the goal must be to fashion the discourse surrounding sea access to transcend national boundaries, emphasizing the potential for shared prosperity, economic growth, and collaborative security within the Horn of Africa. In doing so, Ethiopia will not only gain such access and secure its maritime ambitions but also contribute to a more stable, resilient, and interconnected Africa.
