Ethiopia’s pursuit of sea access for among others, establishing a naval base, aligns with the emerging imperative for an Africa-centric geo-strategic security architecture amid the ongoing geopolitical realignment. This much is true whether or not Ethiopian leaders explicitly recognize or intend it for that purpose. And whether or not, one, for whatever motivations sincere or ulterior, supports it. If that is true, and it is. Why the crisis over Ethiopia’s pursuit?
Because the Africa-wide merits of this pursuit have been lost in ways I have discussed extensively in another discourse titled: How Merits of Ethiopia’s Pursuit for Sea Access Have Been Obscured. But in a nutshell, the Merits of Ethiopia’s access to the sea have been swallowed in controversy around approach to acquisition; distorted in projection of access through a parochial perspective of national interests; and eclipsed by media sensationalism and political rhetoric.
So, what are those strategic security merits of Ethiopia’s access to the sea for Africa, and how do they align with the emerging imperative for a new and responsive framework in Africa’s geo-strategic security architecture amid the ongoing geopolitical realignment?
End maritime Security outsourcing to foreign powers
Of the African Union’s 55 member states, 39 have territorial access to the sea or ocean. But, almost all of them, either out of lack of political will or capacity have outsourced their maritime security to non-African foreign powers rather than developing indigenous capabilities. So currently, Africa accommodates no fewer than 13 foreign countries engaged in military operations on our soils – the highest for any continent, and no less than 47 foreign military outposts. While this is done ostensibly to ensure regional security, it has not only failed, but also given these countries the agency to intervene in domestic conflicts, prolonging instability, and compromising the sovereignty of African nations. This is set to worsen with the growing involvement of non-African countries which are moreover economically and politically less influential than Africa’s leading countries.
Against this backdrop, Africa’s security guarantee lies in reducing foreign involvement in advancing its security and development objectives. Ethiopia, establishing a naval base, would contribute to this in many ways, including by safeguarding maritime trade routes, not only for its benefit but for the entire region. A naval base would see Ethiopia actively engage in countering piracy in the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean, contributing significantly to regional stability by ensuring safe maritime passage. The country’s increased maritime capabilities would also offer a unique advantage in mediating and resolving maritime disputes, thus preventing potential conflicts in the sea from spilling over to Africa. This deterrence factor would help enhance overall regional stability.
Concurrently maximize Economic and Security Gains
One of the most significant strategic mistakes Africa has made as a continent has been the securitization of development. For the most part, we have spent the last decade subordinating growth and development objectives to security priorities, rather than concurrently pursuing both agendas. This approach has led to an imbalance where security concerns have taken precedence over initiatives that would otherwise foster sustainable economic development. This imbalance has not only hampered Africa’s overall progress but also undermined the potential synergies that could otherwise arise from a more integrated and holistic approach to security and development.
Ethiopia’s access to the sea promises a unique opportunity to address both security and economic development objectives. On an economic front, it would enhance the efficiency and cost-effectiveness of import and export activities. The benefits would go beyond Ethiopia’s borders to other landlocked countries. It would see them too, benefit from improved sea connectivity, fostering economic growth and development through access to Ethiopian maritime infrastructure. This infrastructure would attract international investments as well as create opportunities for job creation and regional economic integration. While other coastal countries may make similar claims, Ethiopia stands out due to its advanced infrastructure, energy capabilities, and productive assets, including Africa’s largest power generation dam, as well as one of Africa’s most well-equipped militaries.
From a security perspective, Ethiopia’s maritime access would offer strategic advantages. Control over key sea routes would enhance Africa’s maritime security, safeguarding against potential threats and disruptions. Additionally, Ethiopia’s advanced military capabilities, including one of Africa’s best-equipped militaries, would play a crucial role in ensuring the protection and stability of maritime activities. By securing sea access, Ethiopia would contribute to regional security, creating a more stable environment to facilitate economic growth and development for the entire region, and continent. This integrated approach aligns security and economic interests, providing a powerful solution to the challenges posed by the securitization of development in Africa.
Championing region-wide approach to security promotion
A critical aspect of forging a new and responsive framework in Africa’s geo-strategic security architecture amid the ongoing geopolitical realignment involves not only reducing foreign involvement but also prioritizing region-wide approaches to security promotion. This strategic shift is essential for elevating the geographical bargaining power of African regions, particularly the Horn of Africa. Doing so would not only lessen the costs borne by individual countries but also align the continental security frontier with the dynamics of the evolving multi-polar world order.
The emergence of such security architecture is evident in the Alliance of Sahel States, in West Africa, which has already demonstrated substantial progress in addressing regional security threats within a relatively short timeframe. Maritime security by Ethiopia, commensurate with the capabilities of foreign powers, would be pivotal in shaping a new continental security frontier. Leveraging its historical imperative and current economic strength, Ethiopia’s maritime activities would also provide the basis for collaborative security agreements with neighboring countries.
Moreover, if the country establishes a naval base, it would play a key role in capacity building for regional maritime forces. This could involve training, sharing expertise, and engaging in joint exercises, which until now, African countries conduct with foreign powers. By extending support to multiple nations along Africa’s coastline, Ethiopia would contribute to strengthening the overall security posture in the continent’s coastal regions.
This regional approach, underpinned by continental collaboration, would not only enhance Africa’s geopolitical bargaining power but also facilitate the capitalization of Africa’s tremendous economies of scale. Ethiopia, through its maritime presence, would be in a position to foster collaborative security frameworks, including information-sharing mechanisms, to collectively respond to emerging challenges in the region, championing a proactive step toward a more secure and resilient Africa in the face of evolving geopolitical dynamics.
Next steps for Ethiopia
For all its benefits, Ethiopia cannot and should not pursue access to the sea through a gung-ho, all-brakes-loose approach. The pursuit of sea access, while holding immense potential benefits for Ethiopia and indeed for Africa, demands a measured and diplomatically astute approach. Ethiopia’s leaders should steer clear of an overly assertive or confrontational strategy.
they should both recognize and appreciate the intricate geopolitical dynamics at play. Rather than adopt a reckless combative posture, they should leverage the country’s proven diplomatic prowess to construct an inclusive agreement that accommodates the concerns of all parties involved, specifically Somalia. Such a nuanced, transparent, and cooperative approach would help navigate the complexities involved, remove suspicions of the country’s motives, and foster collaboration among all those who stand to be impacted by its access to the sea.
