Ethiopia: Amhara Region has legitimate concerns

In a congratulatory message on the occasion of the Ashenada holiday, conveyed via his official Facebook page, Ethiopia’s Defense Minister Dr. Abraham Bai stated that “administrative structures established by taking advantage of the previous situation in the areas will be dissolved.” He further emphasized that no armed forces other than the federal security forces would remain present in the area. Although he did not explicitly mention the names of the ‘areas,’ it is evident that he was referring to the disputed region between the Tigray and Amhara regions.

Two significant messages emerge from his statement. Firstly, he acknowledges the presence of administration in the contested area and highlights that it was established by ‘taking advantage’ of the “previous situation,” alluding to the 2020-2022 War in Northern Ethiopia. While there is indeed an administrative structure in place, governed by the Amhara region, saying it was established by ‘taking advantage’ of the war is not only unfairly judgmental but also insensitive to the Amhara Region. Amhara special forces and FANO played a key role in weakening the TPLF by pushing them away from the contested area, which, lying next to the border with Sudan, held strategic importance to TPLF’s war optics.

When the war erupted in November 2020, the contested land’s proximity to the Sudanese border enabled TPLF fighters to access external sources of weaponry, which they used to pursue their aggression. In response, the federal army, in conjunction with Amhara regional forces and FANO, recognized the critical necessity of gaining control over the contested lands to disrupt TPLF’s supply lines from Sudan. This joint effort allowed the federal army to pursue TPLF fighters into central Tigray, eventually pressuring them into negotiation. So, implying that the Amhara took advantage of the war, is clearly incorrect. If anything, aside from the plausibility of the historical Amhara claims over the same lands, the Amhara clearly helped keep the area under safe control for the country’s sake.

Secondly, Dr. Abraham Bai asserts that armed forces present in the contested area must vacate. This reference undoubtedly includes FANO militia and the Amhara Special Forces. It is indeed true that these armed forces are currently stationed in the contested area, as Dr. Abraham Bai points out. However, the Minister seems to overlook the fact that their presence was absolutely essential to prevent the resurgence of TPLF fighters, uphold law and order, and ensure the safety of the local residents. So, by saying that these forces must vacate, Dr. Abraham Bai is clearly emphasizing the federal government’s decision to dissolve regional special forces, including FANO. In so doing, he again shows insensitivity to the fact that that decision indeed sparked the ongoing conflict between federal forces and FANO. It is obvious the federal government is unwilling to consider the reasons why the Amhara are resisting, and instead persisting along a course likely to prolong, and potentially even escalate the conflict.

It now appears that the federal government is determined to impose its will on the Amhara, irrespective of the plausibility of their concerns. Whether such a goal is achievable presents a separate question, yet going up against 40 million Amhara, is undoubtedly a reckless endeavor! Without addressing their concerns through a durable political resolution, even if the federal government is to suppress the Amhara today, their grievances will only endure and certainly reemerge in the future. This might occur at a time when the nation could be ill-equipped to avert the gravest consequences of the situation.

 It reminds me of the proverbial frog that finds itself in slowly warming water.

According to this analogy, as the water’s temperature rises, the frog arrogantly adjusts its own body temperature to match the increasing water temperature. This continues until a critical point is reached—usually when the water approaches boiling at around 100 degrees Celsius. At this point, the frog can no longer adjust to match the temperature of the scalding water and decides to leap out. Tragically, by this time, the frog has lost the energy to jump, having expended it all to match the rising water temperature. It succumbs to the heat and perishes.

What killed the frog? Some might attribute it to the heat, but in reality, it was the delay in making the critical decision to escape that led to its demise. Similarly, the federal government’s choice to ignore addressing the Amhara conflict, particularly concerning the disputed area and instead arrogantly keep trying to match it, mirrors the frog’s behavior of self-importantly attempting to match the escalating heat. Ultimately, akin to the frog finally exhausting the energy it needed to leap out while still able, and finally perishing, the government might jeopardize its legitimacy and potentially even its ability to mediate the Amhara conflict today, only to attempt later when it is too late to avert the worst.

Thus, for the federal government of Ethiopia, now is the time to act, and resolve the enduring internal contradictions that continue to bedevil the country. Dialogue, consensus, trust building – that is the way forward, the only sustainable way.