Last week, Niger ordered Mr. Itte, the French Ambassador to leave the country but he, with the commendation of the French President, Emmanuel Macron, defied it and presently remains holed up inside the French embassy after his 48-hour deadline passed on Monday, the 28th August, last week. In response, the Military Leadership of Niger cut off power and water supply to the Embassy.
When that didn’t appear sufficient to compel the Ambassador to vacate as per the order, they revoked his diplomatic immunity on Thursday, the 31st of August. Mr. Itte ‘no longer enjoys the privileges and immunities attached to his status as a member of the diplomatic staff of the embassy,’ read the communique from Niger’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Nigerien Police have since been tasked to expel the Ambassador.
But as we await the Nigerien police to evict the French Ambassador from the embassy as directed, today September 3rd, is another deadline for the French military personnel stationed in the country to leave Niger. Now the question is, considering the French ambassador defied a similar order to leave, will the 1,500+ French military personnel obey the order and depart, or will they follow suit and defy the order and stay? What will be the implications for Niger and France?
If the French Troops obey the order and leave
Let’s start with the first scenario – if they obey the order and leave:
For Niger’s new leaders, it will mark a major victory by demonstrating their ability and determination to assert authority and sovereignty over Nigerien territory. For France, it will be a harsh, yet accurate reminder that they are guests in Niger, and their stay depends on respecting, rather than undermining, Niger’s territorial integrity.
Still, for Niger’s new leaders, it will affirm their status as the legitimate government of Niger. This is significant given the refusal by Western countries, led by France, to recognize them as the new leaders and insist on reinstating the deposed former leader. Actually, France’s withdrawal will be an acknowledgment that the new leaders are in charge of Niger.
It will also bolster the position of Niger’s new leaders in negotiations regarding other French interests in the country, allowing them to secure more favorable concessions. France’s economic interests in the country are already under scrutiny, and this scrutiny will intensify with the withdrawal of French troops. While Niger may not seek an immediate end to French economic interests in the country, it’s likely to demand renegotiations to prioritize Niger’s interests.
Furthermore, it could embolden Nigeriens to make additional demands, such as the potential withdrawal of other countries with military bases in Niger, like the US, or to initiate new negotiations for improved military benefits.
If the French Troops defy the order and stay
Now, the second scenario – If they defy the order and stay
For Niger’s new leaders, this will be a significant setback, suggesting their inability to assert authority and sovereignty over Nigerien territory. It would also imply that the French are not guests in Niger, and their presence does not depend on respecting Niger’s territorial sovereignty, as already implied by the French ambassador’s refusal to leave following a similar order.
For Niger’s new leaders, it will also undermine their position as the legitimate leaders of Niger, portraying them as usurpers with whom other countries should not engage regarding Niger’s interests, while bolstering France’s demand for the reinstatement of Bazoum, the deposed leader, as the legitimate president of Niger.
It will further weaken the position of the new Nigerien leaders in enforcing other directives while strengthening French influence, compelling them to maintain the status quo regarding the existing unfair economic and military agreements with France made under the former president.
How should Niger respond?
Finally, If Frenc Troops defy the order, how should Niger’s new leaders respond? What are their options and their respective implications?
Do nothing and wait
For Niger’s new leaders, the first option would be to do nothing and wait, as they have in the case of the French Ambassador. The problem with this option is that it will show that they are weak, undermine their legitimacy as Niger’s leaders, and dilute their determination to assert authority and sovereignty over Nigerien territory, as explained in the first scenario.
Moreover, it would provide the French with the time they are seeking to accomplish several objectives: first, time to stir division within the new leadership, secondly, time to incite internal resistance to challenge the new leaders internally and fracture the apparent unity among them, thirdly, time to mobilize terrorist attacks to undermine their ability to safeguard the country, and justify the necessity of French troop presence, and finally time to them build European consensus to eventually intervene in Niger.
Mobilize Public Protest
The second option for Nigerien leaders is to mobilize the public to protest, march, and surround the French Military base, demanding their exit. Will the French military respond with force? Maybe, maybe not. However, it is unlikely, as the repercussions would be very severe. It would essentially mean a fundamental and irreversible break in French relations with Niger. It would unite the Nigeriens even more, generate popular support from the African continent, and gain international allies like Russia.
This would basically trigger the kind of resistance reminiscent of the anti-colonial struggle. The French don’t want that, because their worst fear, a domino effect spreading across the former French economies like Cameroon where they still hold sway, would become a significant threat. Killing Nigerien civilians would spell the end of France’s influence in Africa! I’m sure they realize that. Of course, should they be foolish enough to harm civilians, it will lead, by default, to the third and final option: military confrontation.
Confront the French Militarily
Niger’s third option is to confront the French militarily to force them out. This would entail attacking the French military base, French military installations, and essentially targeting all French military interests across the country. In such a confrontation, Niger would certainly outmatch the 1,500 French military personnel, a fact not lost on the French.
So, it makes us wonder that if the French, fully aware of this fact, still defy the order and refuse to leave, what would be their objective? Simple, it would imply a premeditated move—a kind of bait aimed at provoking Niger into a military engagement. The plan would be to seize this opportunity to bolster their forces in the name of evacuating French nationals, potentially partnering with ECOWAS forces and invading Niger, leading to a full-scale war, which in my opinion, is actually what the French are trying to mastermind.
