In April, the federal government of Ethiopia ordered the integration of regional special forces from the country’s semi-autonomous regions into federal security sectors. This announcement immediately triggered armed clashes, riots, and protests throughout the Amhara region.
And set the stage for the ongoing conflict that now carries the risk of escalating into a full-blown civil war. According to the federal government, centralizing the security forces will bolster their capacity to ensure peace and security across the country, a doubtless good move for Ethiopia.
Why, then, are the Amhara seemingly resisting – even more so, considering their historically demonstrated patriotic sentiment towards Ethiopia? Is the unwillingness to disband their local militia and the regional special forces the cause of this conflict – or merely the occasion for it?
Mainstream media and sometimes even the federal government seem to suggest that it is the former. However, history, both distant and recent, teaches us that for civil conflicts of such magnitude and potential to challenge centers of power like this one, the occasion is never the cause.
The November 2020 TPLF attack on the northern command of the Federal army, for example, occasioned the 2-year Tigray war that followed, but it did not cause it. Tigray had been ready for this war since the removal of the TPLF administration from the helm of Ethiopia in 2018, following which Tigrayans felt threatened, retreated to their region, and mobilized and stockpiled armaments.
Similarly, the April 2023 directive from the Federal Government to integrate regional security forces into the police or federal military, which preceded this conflict, certainly occasioned but did not cause it.
The Amhara region has been primed for the current conflict since as far back as the 1980s, when systemic victimization of their community started, following the overthrow of Emperor Haile Selassie who had Amhara roots, and in whose government the Amhara were reportedly more involved.
This victimization was to such an extent that the TPLF, upon rising to power, reportedly institutionalized a public policy of blame and shame — brazenly inscribed in its 1976 manifesto (1968 in the Ethiopian calendar) — portraying the Amhara as oppressors who subjugated and even colonized the rest of Ethiopia.
The military conflict of today, therefore, seems only a boil-over of the decades-long frustration. Yet, one must not fail to notice that this, happening in 2023, about four decades later (in contrast to the TPLF whose frustrations boiled over only after two years), speaks volumes about the resilience and patience of the Amhara for the political resolution of this victimization.
They particularly seemed to see such an end in the rise of PM Abiy in 2018 which they massively supported. So, to see the Amhara engaged in military conflict today (in self-defense, they say), one can’t but see a community that has or is losing hope in the country’s leadership or perhaps even seeing evidence of the continuation of their victimization.
Many Amhara I have listened to, seemingly perceive ulterior motives in the directive to dismantle the regional forces, and fear it could be meant to make them more vulnerable to victimization. To this extent, one gathers that they are not exactly opposed to the federal government directive to dismantle regional special forces, but only want that any action be based on trust and clarity – both dependent on addressing the nation’s intricate array of multinational contradictions and disputes that have left them victimized for decades.
The Amhara clearly believe that relinquishing regional defense autonomy will jeopardize their security. The question then is, why? What are they striving to safeguard or avoid losing? Against whom do they believe it is necessary to protect themselves? Is there a crisis of confidence in the capacity of the federal government to rein in some regions of the country they consider hostile, or is it a distrust of its willingness to specifically guarantee the security of the Amhara region?
These are the inquiries one must contemplate to understand the causes and connections between the various theaters of conflicts in Ethiopia. Sooner or later, this would have led to the current strife and might yet lead to the next, involving another of the country’s regions next year or the one after if left unattended.
Simply put, the current conflict must be addressed through a political, rather than a military, solution. The solution does not lie, for example, as some suggest, in militarily eradicating this or that tribe or ethnic group, whether in Ethiopia or other African countries undergoing ethnic strife. Multi-ethnicity should be a source of strength, not weakness.
Ethiopia boasts a civilization that spans over 3000 years, and which in that time, has overcome monumental existential challenges even better than monoethnic states. Shouldn’t one, therefore, perceive its multiethnicity as a strength rather than a weakness?
Wasn’t the unity derived from that multiethnicity the very reason Ethiopia triumphed over colonial forces, remaining uncolonized? The problem in Ethiopia, as in other African countries plagued by ethnic strife, is not the ‘tribe’ itself, but the ‘tribalists’ who exploit and ride on their own tribes and/or alliances with other ‘tribalists’ from other tribes to further their narrow personal interests.
So, instead of attempting to forcefully dismantle the Amhara regional special forces, the federal government of Ethiopia needs to pursue a political solution. Engage the Amhara, Tigrayans, and others in dialogue to clarify all areas of contradiction, whether it pertains to regional borders, contested lands, and more. This path is the only way forward.
I understand the sensitivity of the crises Ethiopia is going through, and admiring Ethiopia as much as I do, I would want to be a uniting, rather dividing voice. My views above are therefore well-intentioned, and I have stated them as a fellow African devoid of ulterior motives save for the unwavering preservation of Ethiopia. These views are not solely based on the ongoing Amhara conflict but are also the result of thorough consideration of all active theaters of conflict within this nation, along with the potential latent ones.
Finally, this assessment is made without underestimating the complexity of the quagmire in which Prime Minister Abiy finds himself – one whose resolution, at times, demands sophisticated leadership maneuvers or even strategic decisions that might appear traitorous in the short term to the common citizenry, but whose true extent of patriotism often become evident long after the leader is no longer present.
Whether this will be the case with PM Abiy or not, only time will tell.
Your article attempts to give a fair and a high level of reason behind the current war Abiy Ahmed declared on the Amhara people.
As you have properly framed it “ the occasion is never the cause “.
When Explicitly some of the cause are:
1. A matter of extensional threat for Amharas who have been subjected to endless genocide for the last 50 years of the country’s history.
2. the planned creation of a defenseless Amhara which is intended to be as good as a dead Amhara. …. thus under a pretext of creating a centralized army (primarily one that is 90% oromized) disarm Amhara and subjugate 60 million Amhara people to hunger, poverty, disease, lowest socioeconomic status, and genocide.
3. Oromo elites political hegemony (similar to TPLF ‘s) and expansionist ideology of dominance over the entire country.
4. The destruction of minority ethnic identities that have thrived for thousands of years like the Gamo, Gurage, Guge, Gambella,Afar, Somali, Kemaeta, Borena, Kunama, Amaro, and many more ethnic groups under a fake ethnic federalism swallowing them up to non existence under “OROMIMA” or “TEGARU” which is equivalent to nazi ideology.
5. The use of the national resources to advance the ethnic ideology and dominance of others
6. The regime’s belligerent lawlessness and endless terrorist act against citizens.
These are just a few to mention why the Amhara people have risen and said NO !!