The Sudan conflict between rival generals has escalated into a full-blown proxy war, with foreign powers using the country as a battleground for their own interests. The involvement of regional powers like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, as well as major players like the US and Russia, has made the conflict more complex and heightened the stakes. While the African Union (AU) has been absent in mediating the conflict, the question remains whether foreign powers’ influence in the conflict has limited the AU’s ability to find a peaceful resolution.
Rival Turned Allies
The conflict in Sudan began as a power struggle between General Mohammad Fattah al-Burhan’s Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo’s Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Both generals sought to fill the power vacuum left by the ousting of longtime leader Omar al-Bashir in 2019.
Initially, Burhan and Dagalo were allies and were instrumental in forming the Transitional Military Council (TMC), which took over power. Burhan became the head of the TMC and was considered the de facto leader of the country, while Dagalo retained significant military and economic power as the RSF leader. However, tensions soon emerged between the two as they vied for power and influence.
In June 2019, security forces affiliated with the RSF opened fire on peaceful protesters in Khartoum, which caused a rift between Burhan and Dagalo. The two generals engaged in negotiations to resolve their differences and reached a power-sharing agreement that led to the formation of a civilian-led transitional government in August 2019.
Under the agreement, Burhan remained as the head of the TMC but handed over executive power to Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok. Dagalo, on the other hand, was appointed as a member of the Sovereignty Council, which serves as the collective head of state of Sudan. The power-sharing agreement can be seen as a compromise between the two generals, as they agreed to share power with civilian leaders.
Sudan Conflict now a Proxy War
However, the power-sharing agreement did not resolve all the underlying tensions and rivalries between Burhan and Dagalo and their factions. But more than that, it created opportunities for outsiders to become involved. What we see now, is a full-blown proxy war, with rival powers using the country as a battleground for their own interests.
The involvement of foreign powers in Sudan is not new, of course. During the Darfur genocide and civil wars of the 1990s to 2000s, foreign countries supported the various warring factions. But the current situation is different in several ways.
First, there are more actors involved, including regional powers like Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Second, the conflict has become more complex, with multiple armed groups and factions vying for power. Finally, the stakes are higher, as Sudan is strategically located and has valuable resources, including oil.
US and Russia Rivalry
Away from their war in eastern Europe, the US and Russia are major players in the Sudan conflict. US’s proposal of sanctions on Sudan cleared any remaining doubts regarding its involvement in the conflict. The US often leverages sanctions to handicap one side, and tilt the scale in favor of the one it supports.
One example of this can be seen in the case of Zimbabwe. The US imposed sanctions on Zimbabwe in the early 2000s, citing human rights abuses and political repression by the government of Robert Mugabe. However, the sanctions also targeted key sectors of the economy, including agriculture and mining, which had a devastating impact on the country’s economy and its people. The sanctions were therefore a way for the US to destabilize the Mugabe regime and pave the way for a pro-Western government.
The same applies to Eritrea. For decades the US applied unjustified sanctions on Eritrea, with the objective being to bring about regime change and install a pro-west government. Another example is the previous US sanctions against Sudan. The US imposed sanctions on Sudan in the 1990s, citing the government’s support for terrorism and human rights abuses. However, the sanctions had a severe impact on the country’s economy and its people, leading to widespread poverty and suffering. Again, the US used the sanctions as a way to pressure the then government of Sudan to align with US interests in the region.
Presently, unconfirmed reports claim that Russia’s WAGNER is arming the RSF led by General Dagalo. Gulf states, including the UAE and Saudi Arabia, are also said to be actively involved. Nearby, Egypt is reportedly backing General Burhan. A group of Egyptian soldiers were captured by the RSF at a military airport in northern Sudan at the start of the current violence.
The question is, why are foreign powers intervening in Sudan, and what are they hoping to achieve? The US is obviously looking to expand its influence and gain access to Sudan’s resources. Russia on the other hand is trying to counterbalance the US in the region. But whatever the motivations, the fact remains that foreign intervention has not brought peace or stability to Sudan. Instead, it has only contributed to the chaos and violence that have plagued the country for decades.
Where is African Union?
As in previous times, the African Union (AU) is sitting back and allowing foreign powers to determine the course of events in its backyard. Recent reports indicate the US, through Saudi Arabia, is pushing to mediate between the warring factions. The question is: where is the AU?
Is AU’s absence due to the influence of external powers in the conflict? As mentioned earlier, foreign powers such as the US, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE have been actively involved in the conflict, potentially limiting the AU’s ability to mediate and find a peaceful resolution.
How about the concept of African solutions to African problems that ably resolved the conflict in Ethiopia? Did not that, if there were doubt, prove that Africans can resolve their issues without foreign involvement?
