Earlier today, the Chief of Wagner, Yevgeny Prigozhin, finally broke his silence following the recent rebellion of his mercenary group against Putin. Since the coup attempt and subsequent exile of Prigozhin, there has been an eerie silence from both Russian President Vladimir Putin and Prigozhin himself.
Speculations and rumors have been circulating, including rumors of Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu being placed under house arrest. Various theories have emerged attempting to explain why Wagner abruptly halted their “march” towards Moscow. However, early today, Prigozhin released an audio message, and Putin is set to make an address in a few minutes.
Prigozhin’s release of his 11-minute audio message has shed some clarity on the events that led to his exile in Belarus. While only excerpts of the audio have been translated, they offer valuable insights into the mutiny’s background. Prigozhin reveals that their forces were unexpectedly targeted by missiles and helicopters, despite not showing any hostility.
He discloses their plan for a military technology handover in Rostov on June 30, which was thwarted by a bombing. Furthermore, Prigozhin claims that Wagner’s intention was never to overthrow Russia’s leadership but to hold accountable those responsible for mistakes made during special military operations.
According to Prigozhin, the march initiated by Wagner was intended as a form of protest rather than an armed insurrection to overthrow the elected government of Russia. He claims that the columns of Wagner mercenaries halted their progress just over 200 km away from Moscow after covering a distance of 780 km, as they believed bloodshed was imminent.
Prigozhin also confirms retaliatory strikes made on Russian aircraft, explaining them as acts of self-defense due to the reported loss of 30 Wagner members’ lives. However, geopolitical analysts suggest that Prigozhin’s account may be a distortion of the truth, aimed at absolving himself and maintaining some political relevance in Russia’s future politics.
Prigozhin also reveals that Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko proposed a solution for Wagner to remain under Belarus’ jurisdiction. This contradicts earlier reports suggesting the integration of the Wagner mercenary group into the Russian military.
However, the idea of disbanding Wagner seems impractical, considering its crucial role in advancing Russian interests globally, especially in ongoing military operations such as in Ukraine and parts of Africa. Disbanding Wagner would pose a risk to the security of Russian allies in Africa and undermine Russia’s strategic goals.
Analyzing Prigozhin’s message further reveals several key points. Firstly, his claim that the Russian Defense Ministry wanted Wagner to “cease to exist” suggests that the mutiny was more of a survival response rather than a premeditated event, challenging earlier briefings from US Defense Officials.
Secondly, Prigozhin’s omission of naming his adversaries, such as Shoigu and Gerasimov, may indicate coercion or a recognition of slim chances of success. Lastly, the discrepancy between Lukashenko’s proposal and the integration plan raises concerns about the future security implications of Wagner’s continued existence.
Overall, Prigozhin’s audio message provides some insights into the mutiny, but many questions remain unanswered. However, one thing seems certain—it has further solidified Putin’s hold on power. This will likely become evident in Putin’s address later tonight, where he is expected to make pronouncements and changes to strengthen his power and accelerate the war effort in Ukraine for a swift resolution.
He will be held accountable, its not over for him. He is Jocking.